Development of Autoregressive Time Series Model for Prediction of Rainfall and Runoff for Manshara Watershed of Lower Gomati Catchment

Eno Rai; Arpan Sherring

doi:10.52151/jae2007444.1297

Authors

Eno Rai Allahabad Agricultural Institute, Allahabad Author
Arpan Sherring Allahabad Agricultural Institute, Allahabad Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52151/jae2007444.1297

Abstract

A study was conducted to develop a stochastic time series model for prediction of annual rainfall and runoff in Manshara watershed of lower Gomati catchment. This is one of the sub-watersheds of lower Gomati catchment and has anareaofll.18 km2• The developed model is based on 13 years data from 1991 to 2003. Autoregressive (AR) model of order 0, 1 and 2 proposed by Kottegoda and Horder (1980) were tried. The goodness off it and adequacy of models were tested by Box-Pierce Portmonteau test, Akaike Information Criterion (AlC) and various statistical characteristics viz., Mean Forecast Error (MFE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Relative Error (MRE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Integral Square Error (lSE). Based on the results, it was concluded that AR (1) model can be effectively used for prediction of rainfall and runoff in Manshara watershed.

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