Calibrating SWAT Model Using Satellite-Derived Actual Evapotranspiration in a Data-Scarce River Basin
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52151/jae2026633.2023Keywords:
CMIP6, hydrological model, MODIS-ETa, remote sensing, water yieldAbstract
This study presents a reliable framework for calibration in data scarce basins by integrating satellite-derived actual evapotranspiration (ETa) with hydrological modelling and climate change assessment. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Betwa River basin, located in Bundelkhand region, India, to simulate basin-scale actual evapotranspiration (ETa) process under limited in-situ observations. Monthly MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)-derived ETa data were used for model calibration (2003-2010) and validation (2011-2015), with optimal parameter sets identified using multiple statistical performance indicators. The validated model was subsequently employed to assess future hydrological responses using bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate projections, with EC-Earth3 model selected as the most suitable for representing regional hydro-climatic variability. Future impact assessment due to changing climate were made for the near-future (2021-2050), mid-future (2051-2080), and far-future (2081-2100) periods relative to the baseline period (2003-2015). The model exhibited satisfactory performance, with values of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination ranging from 0.60 to 0.70 during the model calibration and validation. Climate change projections indicated increases in annual rainfall, surface runoff (SURQ), and water yield (WYLD) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. SURQ is projected to increase by 17%-53%, while WYLD may increase by 21%-71% across future periods. The ETa exhibited seasonal variability, with decreases during pre-monsoon and monsoon months and increases during the post-monsoon season. These changes suggested enhanced water availability but also a greater likelihood of hydrological extremes under future climate conditions. Overall, the study offered a practical and transferable approach for hydrological assessment, water resources planning, and climate resilience studies for data-scarce river basins.
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